Obama's upcoming infrastructure stimulus...is it the Answer?

Sunday Morsels

Each Sunday, I toss out a few ideas that I have been thinking about during the week which don't quite make it into full-blown Posts. If I receive enough feedback on any given topic, I'll expand on it in the future. Let the commenting begin!

First off - the Obama plan to create 2.5 Million new jobs over the next 2 to 3 years. A few observations:

1. The economy has lost roughly 1.2 million jobs thus far in 2008...Obama's economic team finds it necessary to pull out all the stops and create Double that amount of jobs. What does that tell you about the depth of the coming unemployment problem, in the opinion of the President-elect's economic team? Guess all those genius analyst talking heads on Bloomberg TV and other financial media who keep screaming about a quick V-shaped recovery are going to be begging for a job riveting bolts on bridges next year.
2. Didn't Congress just approve a $700 Billion rescue package designed to halt the downtrend in home prices and simultaneously boost the capital and lending capabilities of major Banks and Investment dealers? How's that looking right about now? Point is, who's to say what the REAL infrastructure package will look like a year hence, and to what degree it will be effective in accomplishing the original goals set forth by our all-knowing leaders?
3. The cost of creating 2.5 million jobs (figure $100K per, all-in with benefits/taxes/organizing costs) is a somewhat reasonable $250 Billion. The problem is that we are so far overextended, what with the Fed's balance sheet a mess, the tax revenue base dropping at the Fed/State/Local level, and the never-ending cost of rescuing the Banking system, that our Government is starting to look like the American consumer - tapped out with little or no rainy-day savings. We'll see how this plays out.

Secondly - am I the only one who thinks Jason Zweig's recurring column entitled "The Intelligent Investor" is so incredibly naive as to be outright dangerous as a piece of financial guidance? Take a read of some recent sample articles and let me know what you think.

Finally - Happy Turkey Day everyone...special shout-out to my Nephews in Malibu!

Holiday Retail sales analysis: a 3-part process

I spent all day yesterday shopping the stores here in Midtown Manhattan -- Gap, Banana, Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, J. Crew, and Bloomie's. It dawned on me that there are 3 separate events happening, and any one of them can make or break the Christmas shopping season.

1. People have to actually show up in the stores and browse the merchandise with intent to buy. Bloomie's and J. Crew had reasonably good floor traffic; Gap/Banana and Williams/Pottery less so.
2. Consumers in the store must take goods to the register and pay for them, not just 'consider' an item and then put it back on the shelf. This bullet point sounds self-evident, but believe me it is not. I saw a heck of a lot of shoppers doing 'Touch and Feel' without actually getting into a checkout line and whipping out the credit card. Gap and Williams-Sonoma seemed to have a fair percentage of actual spenders, which may partially offset the lower floor traffic. Pottery Barn and Banana, in this observer's opinion, were noticeably weak in both points 1 and 2.
3. The most important aspect from a Retailer's perspective this year: what kind of incentives are to be given as an inducement for consumers? On this score, we have a huge problem for retailers (and a big Home Run for those of us with a steady job). I have never, in 17 years of shopping the stores, seen this depth and breadth of markdowns on the floor pre-Thanksgiving. Bloomie's was 30-40% off names that are NEVER on sale - Armani, Boss, and so forth. I'm sure there were equivalent discounts in the women's sections. My sister reports in from the West coast that Saks has tons of stuff at deep discounts as well. Don't bother logging on to their website, she's rigged it to lock out any potential competitors until she's finished buying what she wants. Try back in a week, she'll be done by then. I think.

Conclusion: Holiday traffic, though certainly not at the levels of previous years, will be pretty good vis a vis the dismal expectations of most analysts - but Gross Margins for retailers will be seriously compromised. Expect 4th quarter reports to show reasonable top-line sales, but a serious year-over-decline in net income due to GM compression. You heard it here first.