Sunday, November 23, 2008

Obama's upcoming infrastructure stimulus...is it the Answer?

Sunday Morsels

Each Sunday, I toss out a few ideas that I have been thinking about during the week which don't quite make it into full-blown Posts. If I receive enough feedback on any given topic, I'll expand on it in the future. Let the commenting begin!

First off - the Obama plan to create 2.5 Million new jobs over the next 2 to 3 years. A few observations:

  1. The economy has lost roughly 1.2 million jobs thus far in 2008...Obama's economic team finds it necessary to pull out all the stops and create Double that amount of jobs. What does that tell you about the depth of the coming unemployment problem, in the opinion of the President-elect's economic team? Guess all those genius analyst talking heads on Bloomberg TV and other financial media who keep screaming about a quick V-shaped recovery are going to be begging for a job riveting bolts on bridges next year.
  2. Didn't Congress just approve a $700 Billion rescue package designed to halt the downtrend in home prices and simultaneously boost the capital and lending capabilities of major Banks and Investment dealers? How's that looking right about now? Point is, who's to say what the REAL infrastructure package will look like a year hence, and to what degree it will be effective in accomplishing the original goals set forth by our all-knowing leaders?
  3. The cost of creating 2.5 million jobs (figure $100K per, all-in with benefits/taxes/organizing costs) is a somewhat reasonable $250 Billion. The problem is that we are so far overextended, what with the Fed's balance sheet a mess, the tax revenue base dropping at the Fed/State/Local level, and the never-ending cost of rescuing the Banking system, that our Government is starting to look like the American consumer - tapped out with little or no rainy-day savings. We'll see how this plays out.

Secondly - am I the only one who thinks Jason Zweig's recurring column entitled "The Intelligent Investor" is so incredibly naive as to be outright dangerous as a piece of financial guidance? Take a read of some recent sample articles and let me know what you think.

Finally - Happy Turkey Day everyone...special shout-out to my Nephews in Malibu!

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